News Analysis: Somali military conflict turns into regional war against Al-Shabaab

News Analysis: Somali military conflict turns into regional war against Al-Shabaab
What began a month ago as a temporary military expedition into Somalia by Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) to repulse a militia group is transforming rapidly into a major regional war against the Al-Shabaab after two other Horn of Africa states joined the fray.

The prospect of a major regional war looming is in the offing following revelations that the African Union is rallying more member-states to donate 20,000 troops to bolster its peacekeeping force in Somalia, whose mandate changed to peace-enforcers following repeated fatal attacks by the Al-Shabaab militia group.

With the United Nations and the African Union unable to provide a clear roadmap to securing lasting peace, Ethiopia has reportedly rolled its military tanks into Somalia to prop a one-month old campaign by its southern neighbor Kenya against the militia group.

AU now wants to build on the presence of Kenyan army in Somalia that seeks to root out Al Qaeda-backed Al-Shabaab militia that fights to unseat the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) led by President Sheikh Ahmed Sharif.

However, the entry into fray of the Ethiopia and Djibouti came earlier than had been expected.

Deputy Special Representative of the African Union Chairperson Wafula Wamunyinyi who prior to the excursions had told Xinhua that the AU had given the three states the nod to move their troops into Somalia in a joint regional military offensive.

The special envoy said the Ethiopian military operation had been timed for December, while Djibouti would have come on board in January.

Wamunyinyi revealed further that West African nation Sierra Leone had agreed to contribute 3,000 troops by next January.

Rwanda and Tanzania have too indicated willingness to send troops to Somalia to rein the Islamic insurgents, who in twin bombings that killed 80 people in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, in reprisal attacks for the latter's support of President Sharif's government.

"Kenya is targeting areas where the militants are in control. And whether this is a conventional war or repulsion of a guerrilla group, it is important that the atrocities committed by Al-Shabaab must be brought to an end.

"Even if the operation is short term, there has to be an 'end- state' to ensure the terror group is checked," Wamunyinyi, who has a background in military operations, said. End state is a military jargon for an exit strategy from a war or operation.

However, the move by AU to support Somalia's neighbours' military operations is precipitating a fresh challenge: who takes credit once Al-Shabaab threat is eliminated?

The three frontline states – Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti -- had initially been kept out of the initial peace roadmap lest their inclusion escalate the insurgency in the volatile, terrorist infested Horn of Africa nation that has historically waged war against its neighbors with aim of establishing a borderless Islamic caliphate.

Instead the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD), a grouping of seven Horn of Africa and East African states that have been mediating in the 21-year old Somali crisis petitioned AU to provide 8,000 -12,000 peacekeeping force to oversee the transition to a democratically elected government five years since the coming into force of the charter that gave birth to the fragile Transitional Federal Government in 2005.

Wamunyinyi said Kenya's military operation in Somalia has so far been effective in containing Al-Shabaab, but the "end state" of the operation needed to be backed strongly to deny the militiamen a chance to regroup.

It is against this backdrop, Wamunyinyi said, the AU initially hesitant to allow regional governments to be drawn in the Somali crisis lest it spirals out of control, is backing Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Djibouti intervention to stem what is universally accepted an international security threat.

The East African Community, whose two member-states – Uganda and Burundi – are the only ones that donated roughly 9,000 troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom), are also expected to priorities Somalia in their heads of summit scheduled for Zanzibar (Tanzania), later this month.

Kenya Minister for EAC Affairs Musa Sirma said in an interview that Nairobi was aiming to "decapitate" the supply chain with the capture and blockading of Kismayu, the Indian ocean port widely believed to the conduit for drugs, counterfeit goods and the launching pad of piracy. Sirma said cutting off supply lines will require a long-term strategy to sustain it.

The minister said the need to cut off permanently the supply lines of terrorism persuaded the usually disharmonious cabinet to agree unanimously to strike at Al-Shabaab.

"We have compromised our country with insecurity. The target of Al-Shabaab is Kenya. We resolved not to sit back and wait for the terrorists to come and wipe us out. Insecurity must be put to rest permanently," said Sirma.

He said multipronged strike on Al-Shabaab will take center- stage at the upcoming EAC council of ministers and heads of heads of summit in Zanzibar.

However, even as Kenya and Ethiopian attempt to push back the Somali militants, their belated attempts have not been without criticism at home and abroad – particularly the West.

In its latest report on the Somali conflict, a U.S.-based Consultancy Africa Intelligence said: "Violence and lawlessness along the border have thrived not only on the complete and prolonged collapse of the Somali state and Kenya's chronic failure to establish an effective administration in its vast, remote and arid northern border areas, but also on environmental stress and poverty, the hardening of ethnic identity, cross-border trade and economy, contested urban spaces, crime, arms proliferation, and the lack of border control."

The report says Somalia's neighbors paying the price of neglecting vast bastions of their territories that over time slipped into abject poverty, giving rise to insurgency.

Editor: Mu Xuequan

English.news.cn   2011-11-22 06:03:32 FeedbackPrintRSS
by David Musyoka and Chrispinus Omar

NAIROBI, Nov. 21 (Xinhua)